TY  - JOUR
T1  - Evaluation of Bangkok Bomb by Long-Run Macro-Economic Model
AU - Chaivichayachat, Bundit 
JO  - The Social Sciences
VL  - 11
IS  - 21
SP  - 5275
EP  - 5279
PY  - 2016
DA  - 2001/08/19
SN  - 1818-5800
DO  - sscience.2016.5275.5279
UR  - https://makhillpublications.co/view-article.php?doi=sscience.2016.5275.5279
KW  - Macro-economic model
KW  -Thailand tourism
KW  -growth
KW  -tourists
KW  -bomb
AB  - The aim of this study is to construct a long-run relationship macro-economic model for Thai Economy
and to apply the estimated model to evaluate the impact of Bangkok bomb on Thai economy. A structural model
was set up by employing a national account system and balance of payments. There are 6 groups of equations
in the structural model including domestic demand, aggregate supply, financial market, external sector, price
adjustment mechanism and macroeconomic policy. The structural model consists of 16 behavioral equations
and 12 identities. Each behavioral equation was assigned to find the cointegrating vector following the method
of Johansen system cointegration test. Using the quarterly data during 1993-2015, the long-run relationship
among the variable in each behavioral equation were estimated. All of the behavioral estimated equations in
the model can be used to explain each part of Thai economy with statistical significance. The results
of the ex-pose stochastic simulation and the Thiel’s inequality coefficient indicate that the estimated model can
capture the behavior of endogenous variable properly. It is only 7.4% of the error were generated. For the
application, the estimated long-run macroeconomic model for Thai economy was employed to evaluate the
impacts of Bangkok bomb. A seriously bomb in the middle of Bangkok in the early night of 17 August 2015
caused the number of foreign tourists and the foreign tourism revenue declined and slowdown output growth.
ER  -