TY  - JOUR
T1  - Economic and Mathematical Model for Forecasting Passenger Traffic on a
Long Term Basis Case of Study Russia
AU - Sinitsyn, Evgeniy AU - Vikharev, Sergey AU - Brusyanin, Dmitry 
JO  - Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences
VL  - 14
IS  - 3
SP  - 773
EP  - 779
PY  - 2019
DA  - 2001/08/19
SN  - 1816-949x
DO  - jeasci.2019.773.779
UR  - https://makhillpublications.co/view-article.php?doi=jeasci.2019.773.779
KW  - Long-term forecasting
KW  -passenger traffic
KW  -economic and mathematical modelling
KW  -official statistics
KW  -well-established
KW  -models
AB  - In this study weinvestigate approaches to the prediction of passenger traffic on annual basis with
a time horizon of up to 5 years. The data for Russian Federation was used. The factors that may be used to
construct a regression model were investigated. The ability to predict passenger traffic on the basis official
statistics (forecast GRP population, per capita income) is shown. The proposed models allow to solve the
problem of forecasting the passenger traffic volumes done by public transport at the different long-term levels.
Thus, the start of its usage at least at the annual long-term perspective is possible from the present moment.
The information collection about region’s passenger trafficmay be the basis of such decomposition. Such
information also allows to define the well-established proportions of distribution of the total passenger traffic
volumes in the region on the separate routes within the dedicated transport districts and between districts.
These proportions can be used to distribute the expected passenger traffic in the directions of interest.
ER  -