TY  - JOUR
T1  - Water Use Forecast for Hydropower Generation
AU - , J.O. Aribisala 
JO  - Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences
VL  - 2
IS  - 1
SP  - 222
EP  - 225
PY  - 2007
DA  - 2001/08/19
SN  - 1816-949x
DO  - jeasci.2007.222.225
UR  - https://makhillpublications.co/view-article.php?doi=jeasci.2007.222.225
KW  - Storage
KW  -autocorrelation
KW  -univariate
KW  -hydropower
KW  -energy
AB  - This study presents a model that can be used in planning a release policy for Kanji hydropower station. This will bring about an optimal release policy. The monthly Reservoir Storage for Kanji hydropower system was plotted to determine the degree of seasonality and to identify outliers. The sample auto-correlation when  plotted  showed  the  series  to be non-stationary. The Box-Jenkins univariate procedure was adopted for model  development.  The  method  of  differencing  was  employed   to   make   the   series   stationary.  The auto-correlation and the partial auto-correlation parameters of the stationary series were used to identify the appropriate model. The decaying pattern of the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation indicated the need for a mixed model. The mixed model developed was used to forecast storage values. The forecast values were found to compare favourably with the actual data. The model is a short-term forecast method that can be relied for the daily operations of the hydropower system.
ER  -