@article{MAKHILLJEAS202015919263,
    title = {Future Energy Demand Scenarios of Nepal},
    journal = {Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences},
    volume = {15},
    number = {9},
    pages = {2050-2057},
    year = {2020},
    issn = {1816-949x},
    doi = {jeasci.2020.2050.2057},
    url = {https://makhillpublications.co/view-article.php?issn=1816-949x&doi=jeasci.2020.2050.2057},
    author = {Kiran,Shree and},
    keywords = {policy,energy planning,MAED model,energy intensity,Energy scenario},
    abstract = {Energy is vital for the economic prosperity and
social development of any country. Future energy demand
projection is the basis for sustainable energy planning.
The study presents the possible long term energy demand
scenarios of Nepal using Model for Analysis of Energy
Demand (MAED). The base year for the analysis has been
taken as 2017 while the low (BAU), medium and high
scenarios have been developed from 2020 through 2040
at different economic growth rates 4.5, 7.2, 9.2%,
respectively. Additional policy scenario has been
analyzed at 7.2% economic growth rate. Total final
energy consumption in the base year was 524.7 PJ while
it is found to be 1,162.80, 1,489.65, 1,879.82 and
1,416.07 PJ in low, medium, high and policy scenario,
respectively by the year 2040 resulting energy demand
growth of 3.5, 4.6, 5.7 and 4.4%, respectively. However,
the final electricity demand has been found to increase at
the rate of 8.4, 9.9, 11.7 and 10.8% in low, medium, high
and policy scenarios, respectively. The share of traditional
fuel has been found to decrease in all the scenarios while
the share of petroleum is found to increase in all the
scenarios. Per capita final energy demand will be 29.42,
37.69 and 47.56 and 35.82 GJ in low, medium, high and
policy scenarios whereas the per capita electricity demand
will be 789, 1,145, 1,570 and 1,290 kWh, respectively by
the year 2040. To fulfill that electricity demand the power
plant capacity required would be 12.62, 18.31, 20.64 and
25.12 GW in low, medium, policy and high scenarios,
respectively by the year 2040.}
    }