@article{MAKHILLJEAS20094113081,
    title = {Markovian Probabilistic Pavement Performance PredictionModels for a Developing Country},
    journal = {Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences},
    volume = {4},
    number = {1},
    pages = {13-26},
    year = {2009},
    issn = {1816-949x},
    doi = {jeasci.2009.13.26},
    url = {https://makhillpublications.co/view-article.php?issn=1816-949x&doi=jeasci.2009.13.26},
    author = {A.S.,A.O. and},
    keywords = {Pavement deterioration,user costs,probabilistic modeling,benefit-cost},
    abstract = {The research presented here is a part of a simplified Pavement 
  Information and Management System (PIMS) constructed for a typical developing 
  country. Pavement deterioration modeling based on historical record of the objective 
  function (performance) variation with age (time) requires regular measurement 
  of the condition rating of pavement sections over a period of some years. Based 
  on the generated model curves using historical data, future condition rating 
  could then be predicted. In the absence of such information and record in the 
  country (Nigeria), such method cannot be used and the alternative is to use 
  probabilistic modeling. With the aid of Matlab and Visual Basic application 
  software, three models were developed to generate pavement deterioration profiles, 
  accruable user costs and intervention maintenance costs. The developed models 
  were applied to a case study road. The results proved that timely intervention 
  to maintain pavements at appropriate times will significantly reduce the overall 
  expenditure for both the road users and the government. This was also attested 
  to by the results of the benefit-cost analysis carried out.}
    }