S.O. Olagunju  , K.A. Bashiru  , O.E. Olowofeso  , 
    Statistical Model for Estimating the Rate of Spread of Human Immune-Deficiency: A Case Study of Ondo Kingdom,
    Research Journal of Applied Sciences,
    Volume 2,Issue 10,
    2007,
    Pages 1025-1030,
    ISSN 1815-932x,
    rjasci.2007.1025.1030,
    (https://makhillpublications.co/view-article.php?doi=rjasci.2007.1025.1030)
    Abstract: This research considered a statistical model for estimating the rate of spread of Human Immune-Deficiency Virus by making use of Ondo-West Local Government as a case study. The virus’ modes of infection and some of the existing epidemic models were discussed. Ondo-West was randomly sampled out of the local government areas that make Ondo Kingdom. Records of samples were obtained from the two government-recognised Hospitals in the vicinity. Data on relevant variables comprising Year of Test, Age-group, Gender, as well as Percentage that tested positive were analysed. The study made use of Generating Function approach to solve the associated Birth process model. A reduction from normal population was numerically noticed through the use of Birth process model, Results of various age-groups (0-5), (6-22) and (23+), respectively defined as Infants, Youth and Adults were presented. It was found that the age-group (6-22) has the greatest risk, as out of an assumed 5000 members of each group, the Youth has 34 possible infected members, as against 6 and 27 for Infants and Adults, respectively.
    Keywords: Statistical model;spread;estimating;immune-deficiency;AIDS;HIV